ʻO ka paio Probabilistic

Anter

• Hoʻohana o nā paio probabilistic
• Nā ʻano o nā manaʻo pai probabilistic
• Nā laʻana o ka paio probabilistic

A hoʻopaʻapaʻa probabilistic ʻO ia ka mea e hoʻomaka mai ma kahi o hoʻokahi o kāna mau kahua i hiki a hiki i ka hopena.

Nānā nā manaʻo Probabilistic i nā kūlana a me ka hana o ka hanana, logika a me ka hiki o kekahi mea e hana ana.

Hoʻohana o nā paio probabilistic

Hoʻohana ʻia kēia mau paio i ka ʻepekema empirical, kahi e koi ai i ka ʻike e hemo ai ka hiki ke hoʻi hou.

Nā ʻano o nā manaʻo pai probabilistic

ʻElua ala e ʻike ai i kahi paio o kēia mau ʻano:

• ʻO ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa Probabilistic Quantitative. E hoʻohana i nā pākēneka a i ʻole nā ​​helu e lawe ai i ka paio. ʻO kahi laʻana: Hoʻokahi o nā wahine ʻekolu e hana ʻia ma Argentina. / 75% o ke kino i hana ʻia me ka wai.
• ʻO ka paio probabilistic Qualitative. ʻAʻole hoʻohana ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa i nā pākēneka akā hoʻohana i nā adverse o ka nui. ʻO kahi laʻana: Ua hala ka hapalua o ka poʻe e kū nei i ka hōʻike me nā mea i ʻoi aku ma mua o 8. / Ka hapa nui o nā limahana i hoʻopiʻi e pili ana i ka hana a ka ʻoihana.

Nā laʻana o ka paio probabilistic

1. Ma ka hoʻolei ʻana i kahi kālā, loaʻa iā mākou kahi 50% loaʻa manawa hāʻule ke keʻa.
2. ʻAʻole i kāohi i ka ua no nā lā a, e like me ka lawelawe meteorological, aia kahi 90% kūpono i kēia lā ua kekahi.
3. Ke ʻōwili wau i kahi make he 50% loaʻa manawa puka mai kahi helu kūlike.
4. I kahi pāʻani kāleka Sepania, inā makemake wau e kahaki i kahi kāleka spade, loaʻa iaʻu kahi 25% loaʻa wale.
5. ʻO ka hapa liʻiliʻi o nā malihini i noho e hoʻomaʻemaʻe ma hope o ka pāʻina.
6. Inā he kinikini ʻeleʻele a me ʻelua mau kinikini keʻokeʻo i loko o kahi ʻeke, he aʻu 66.6% kūpono puka mai kekahi o nā kinikini keʻokeʻo, ʻoiai hoʻokahi wale nō aʻu 33,3% e huki i ka canine ʻeleʻele.
7. Inā pāʻani wau i ka heihei me ʻekolu o kaʻu mau hoaaloha, (ʻehā mākou a pau) he 25% koʻu. manawa lanakila a a 75% ʻaʻole lanakila.
8. Inā wau e noi no kahi hana me 100 mau moho, he a kaʻu 1% hiki ke kiʻi i kēlā kūlana a a 99% o ka loaʻa ʻole.
9. I ka heihei lio, inā he ʻelima o lākou e hoʻokūkū ana akā makemake wau i ka helu 4 e lanakila, he a kaʻu 20% loaʻa wale iā ia e lanakila ana a 80% o ka lanakila ʻole.
10. Inā hoʻopaʻa wau, loaʻa iaʻu kahi pakeneka kiʻekiʻe e hala ka hōʻike o kēia pule aʻe